What’s Missing from the US Presidential Election? – Guest Blog by Dr John Shosky

By Dr John Shosky

Days away from the American election the race remains a toss-up.  The pundits are in over-drive trying to explain the close races in states like Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, and elsewhere.  After Hurricane Sandy, the candidates have resumed speaking and travelling non-stop.  Words, words, words.  We are drowning in words that do nothing.

The election should not even be close.  The economy is in serious trouble.  The bailout didn’t revive the economy.  Barack Obama has no agenda for a second term, only platitudes about creating an equal society.  He has looked un-presidential in the debates and his campaign speeches.  Mitt Romney has not provided persuasive ideological alternatives like Ronald Reagan did thirty years ago.  Romney in jeans and rolled-up shirts has looked un-presidential himself.  There is an intellectual void, a barren and discouraging rhetorical emptiness.  Nothing … nothing …  nothing … that has been said has a lasting impact.  Some voters are left with visceral feelings of anger, frustration about having to choose between the lesser of two evils, and hollow dejection about the future of the economy and the country.  This election should have a tone of optimism and nostalgia for the future.  Sadly, it doesn’t.  Look at the lack of excitement as many politicians and campaign workers simply go through the motions.

A key reason for this close race is the absence of rhetorical impact, the missing words and ideas that create separation between candidates.  Candidates want to use language to bond with an audience and heal division.  But they also must use language to define difference between those running for office.  Speechwriters and veteran political observers instantly look for those words.  Voters need them.  Their absence is obvious, speech after speech.  After millions of words in thousands of speeches this election is defined more by what is missing than by what has been said.  The close races are a primarily a product of mind-numbing, vacuous, or weak word choices that fail to have any lasting impact with voters.  That’s right.  In swing states the issue is not primarily party.  Undecided and independent voters are looking and listening.  Most are not finding what they need to make a distinctive choice. Yes, we have heard about Bain Capital, tax payments, personal wealth, and other comments by Obama about Romney.  And we have heard from Obama about killing bin Laden, saving Detroit, and federal compulsory health care (Obamacare).  And Romney has discussed high taxes, over-regulation, a do-nothing administration, and expanding government.  Where are the profound, unforgettable words that define voting issues?  Where are the words that go for the jugular?  This election has produced some of the most infantile, dead-on-arrival, and embarrassing rhetoric in the history of presidential elections.  For example, there was no lasting traction with Obama’s use of “Romnesia,” “the war on women,” ”47 percent,” or other efforts to taint Romney, making him the issue.  In turn, Romney has produced no classic, icon descriptions of the last four years, even though middle class income is down by forty percent, unemployment is struck at eight percent, and American foreign policy is in retrenchment.  After billions of dollars, years of preparation, and opportunities galore, is this the best they can do?  Obama’s excellent White House speechwriters are prohibited by law from participating in political events.  So they are out.  Where is a rhetorical genius like Ted Sorensen, Richard Goodwin, Michael Gerson, or even the earlier version of David Plouffe?  Where is a veteran, cut-through-the-crap person like Pat Buchanan, Lee Atwater, James Carville, Alastair Campbell, or Eric Pickles?  Where is the savvy guidance of a Geoffrey Howe or David Gergen?   What about using the trans-Atlantic wisdom of a Peter Botting (the master) or Shane Greer (who may know more about American politics than most American politicians)?  Not all words are equal.  Words are weapons.  Every battle is a battle of ideas.  Where is the literary passion and visionary inspiration of a Peggy Noonan or Phil Collins (the Blair speechwriter)? Continue reading

USA Guest Blog – The State of the Race

By Hugh Critchley

Judging by much of the British press, you would think that President Obama is cruising comfortably to victory, with many newspapers reporting his “clear victory” in Tuesday’s debate and his sturdy lead in the battleground states of Ohio, Florida and Virginia. This is simply not the case – the race is far closer than that. National polls have been getting closer and closer since the first debate. A Gallup national poll released yesterday even put Romney ahead of Obama by 7 points, leading 52% – 45%. A week ago they were locked in a dead heat with each other at 48%. Obama’s ‘lock’ states – those that are certain to vote for him – are down to 10 whereas Romney has 13. A still more startling revelation yesterday is that Romney took his first lead in the electoral college poll. He is now projected to take 206 votes, with Obama taking 201. There are 131 votes potentially left to play for. Furthermore, the University of Colorado study, renowned for its accuracy, predicts a 77% likelihood of Romney taking the popular vote. This is significant because firstly only four presidents in the nation’s history have taken the White House without winning the popular vote, and secondly this study has never been wrong.

Other polling metrics are looking good for Romney as well. The economy is undoubtedly the central issue of this election, and a USA/Gallup poll has Romney’s favourability on handling the economy at 63%-23% among likely voters. One should take note of his recent performance in the battleground states, in which his recent focus seems to have started to pay off. In Ohio, considered to be the most crucial state, Romney has cut Obama’s lead in the polls to just 1 point at 49%-48%. In the very blue state of New Hampshire Obama’s lead is also just a single point. Another striking statistic of the ‘Romney Surge’ following his exemplar performance in the first (and second) debate is that in Wisconsin one poll has Obama’s lead is also down to 1. Two weeks ago he led by 11 points. That is an extraordinary swing in such a short time. See also North Carolina, where the Democrats held their national convention this year, Romney leads that hotly contested state by 6 points, 58%-46%. Romney is also leading in Florida now, very much a swing state, by 49.3% to 46.8%. Virginia, another of the big three swing-states is now polling with Romney ahead by 3 points at 50% -47%. That’s quite a lead in such a sought after state and Obama has done a lot of campaigning there. Continue reading

Right-Click (Wednesday 14th March 2012)

Right Click: Today’s Top Stories and Opinions

On this day…

1984:Gerry Adams shot in an attack in Belfast

Daily Reaganite

“My fellow Americans, I am pleased to tell you that I have signed legislation to outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in 5 minutes”

Daily Thatcherite

“We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level, with a European Super-State exercising a new dominance from Brussels”

Upcoming Events:

Parliamentary Rally – 14th March 2012

YBF workshop – public speaking and speech writing – Saturday 24th March

If you have any questions about YBF or our series of events, email Frank@YBF.org.uk

Right-Click (Wednesday 15th February 2012)

Right Click: Today’s Top Stories and Opinions

On this day…

1971: D-Day delivers new UK currency

Daily Reaganite

“Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite on one end and no sense of responsibility at the other”

Daily Thatcherite

“It took us a long time to get rid of the effects of the French revolution 200 years ago. We don’t want another one.”

Upcoming Events:

Public Affairs Career Seminar – 15th February 2012

YBF Skill Workshop – “How to win an argument” - 25th February

Parliamentary Rally – 14th March 2012

If you have any questions about YBF or our series of events, email Frank@YBF.org.uk

Right-Click (Tuesday, 3rd January 2012)

Right Click: Today’s Top Stories

On this day…

1993: The United States of America and the Russian Federation agree to cut the number of nuclear warheads they have by between 3,000 and 3,500.

Daily Reaganite

“Democracy is worth dying for, because it’s the most deeply honourable form of government ever devised by man.”

Daily Dose of Thatcherism

“A world without nuclear weapons would be less stable and more dangerous for all of us.”

Remember

  • YBF will be taking a delegation to CPAC, the largest US conservative conference in February this year. More details will be available soon.